Earth’s Climate System: Complex, But Our Understanding Grows

North Country. According to NOAA [National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration], “As plants and animals near the surface of the ocean die and decay, they slowly fall toward the seafloor, just like leaves and decaying material fall onto a forest floor. In addition to dead animals and plants, marine snow also includes fecal matter, sand, soot, and other inorganic dust.”

And, … this “snow” is also the primary source of energy for deep sea creatures.



The Schematic with the image of the sun at top, and “Sea Floor” on the bottom is from Wikipedia. It shows the complexity of this process and starts with phytoplankton, which takes in carbon dioxide via photosynthesis from the air/water. These in turn are being consumed by zooplankton, which in turn are consumed by ocean predators [see top of illustration]: all contributing to this “snow.” It takes a long time for this POC [particulate organic carbon] to finally reach the ocean floor where it remains.

This may not sound important, but it turns out this process is critical in understanding the flow of carbon, in Earth’s climate system, where it goes and then where it finally resides. Marine snow acts to sequester, or take, carbon from Earth’s atmosphere, and store it on the ocean bottom for thousands of years.

It is called marine snow because it looks like white fluffy bits, or “snowflakes,” and is also called “ocean dandruff” [Wikipedia]. See photo under water [blue] with white specs.



See image supplied by NOAA in Wikipedia.

As scientists work to understand the complexities of Earth’s climate system, they have modeled the amount of carbon being removed from the atmosphere by this mechanism and many others. However, they are now finding their models for this particular mechanism are incomplete. The amount of carbon actually reaching the ocean floor, and the rate at which it accumulates, is less than what was expected.

And this means that more carbon is circulating in our climate system than previously known.

And this has a significant impact on forecasting the amount of Earth’s warming. This mechanism in total transports about one-third of human sourced carbon dioxide in our atmosphere to the ocean floor and “locks” it up for thousands of years.

A recent publication [Science, Vol. 386, 11 October 2024], using a newly developed microscope out on the open ocean, has observed this mechanism in detail and found some surprising results. Rahul Chajwa et.al. observed that these particles grow mucous-like extensions as they descend the water column which slows considerably their descent.The authors found that the process was much more complex than anticipated. They observed that many of these particles had what they called “parachutes,” and they were mucus-like, and acted like a drag on the particles slowing their descent.

Apparently, deep dwelling bacteria and other micro-organisms attached themselves to these particles for a ride. This observation and result suggest that many [hundreds?] of gigatons of less carbon are being sequestered than thought. The implications are significant and will require much more study to fully understand this process and impact on the climate models.

And this research and awareness is critical to better inform all our policy makers that action is required.

Note the graph titled “Figure 1. Global surface temperature change.” This is from a paper by James Hansen, 12/9/24, that he presented to the International Court of Justice Proceedings in The Hague. The court is hearing from scores of nations before it gives an advisory opinion on the “Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change.”

“The key issue is whether international law requires nations to phase out production distribution and use of fossil fuels and otherwise pay damages … .”

But, back to the Dr. Hansen’s graph.

There is a lot of information here so please be patient. The authors have analyzed the global temperature data in 5 ways [see distinct color lines and dots]. Plotting the 144-year data set by the annual mean, or even by an 11 year monthly mean, or by a mathematical fit over 40 years or the last 14 years, all show the same thing; our planetary temperature is increasing, and the rate of that increase is also increasing. Note the rapidly rising elevated blue dotted line over the past few years.



Record setting temperatures are part of the normal variations expected by Earth’s climate system. In any particular year one would expect the number of low temperature records, and the number of high temperature records, to be about equal. And for most previous decades that is the case.

See the bar chart titled: RECORDS SET BY DECADE, WATERTOWN. If interested, there are lots of other towns/cities included in the climatecentral.org/climate-matters/record-heat data set. For this city Watertown, the last 2 decades have been much different than previously. Many, many more high temperature records have been set than cold temperature records.

The larger number of hot records certainly correlates with our personal experience as well as with Dr. Hansen’s graph.



But we have some nations trying to make a difference. Norway, although a major oil producing nation, has initiated a number of highly successful policies to encourage a reduction in carbon emissions from the transportation sector, which is the largest source of carbon emissions.

See the circular chart from “CleanTechnica, 12/6/24, titled, “November 2024 Norway Passenger Auto Registrations.” The electric vehicle registrations for November reached almost 95%. These technology transitions can be successful.



But, we have a lot more work to do.

The scientific career of Raymond N. Johnson, Ph.D., spanned 30 years in research and development as an organic/analytical chemist. He is currently founder and director of the Institute of Climate Studies USA (www.ICSUSA.org). Climate Science is published monthly.